Small amateur attacks on US and UK targets were more likely than al-Qaeda attacks on prominent targets, said political risk forecaster Exclusive Analysis.
But it warned that a strike on a US or UK target was likely to happen within a year.
It said recent warnings of probable attacks on financial institutions in the US, and alleged threats against London Heathrow airport were premature and based on assessments of terrorist intent rather than capability.
Exclusive Analysis said the real threat came from “aspiring militants who are in the early stages of terrorist planning and who look to remnants of al-Qaeda in Pakistan for guidance”.
Exclusive Analysis has forecast that an attack on the US or the UK within a year was likely, but the first attacks would be small rather than spectacular, it said.
It said recent intelligence predicting an imminent attack had been distorted by official misinformation and media hysteria.
