Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the forecasting consortium led by UCL's Benfield Hazard Research Centre, has predicted another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2006.
Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 50% above the 1950-2005 norm.
There remains a high (78%) probability that US landfalling hurricane activity will be in the above-average tercile, according to TSR.
The chance of a near-average season is 17% and the probability of a below-normal season is 5%.
The forecast spans the period from 1 June to 30 November 2006 and employs data through to the end of March 2006.
TSR has also predicted another ‘close to average' 2006 Northwest Pacific typhoon season overall with 27 tropical storms, 17 of these being typhoons and eight being intense typhoons.
The typhoon season lasts from 1 January to 31 December with 95% of typhoons occurring historically after 1 May.
