Tropical Storm Risk has warned that a return to high hurricane activity in 2007 is likely
following the below-average 2006 hurricane season.
TSR's long-range forecast anticipates Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricane activity will be 60% above the 1950-2006 norm next season, with only a 15% chance that there will be average levels of storm activity.
According to TSR it is 76% likely that U.S. landfalling hurricane activity in 2007 will be in the top one-third of years historically. Five tropical storm strikes are expected on the US, of which two will be hurricanes.
Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and head of weather and climate extremes at the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, is confident that 2007 will be another active hurricane season.
"In addition to our core model prediction," he said, "further support that 2007 will see above normal
hurricane activity to 80% likelihood comes from the link between El Niño events in +ve AMO
(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) years - as we are currently experiencing - and the level of hurricane activity in the following year. Since 1950 there have been 10 El Niño events in +ve AMO years. Eight out of ten of these were followed by above-normal hurricane activity next season. This result occurs because El Niño conditions tend to reverse sign by the following summer."
