Motor market currently ‘at about the softest point in the cycle’ – Geoff Carter

The motor market cycle of hardening and softening is “at about the softest point in the cycle” at the moment, according to motor specialist insurer Sabre’s chief executive Geoff Carter. 

In its full-year financial results for 2024, published last week (18 March 2024), Sabre posted a combined operating ratio of 84.2% and a record high gross written premium figure of £236.4m.

Speaking to Insurance Times following the results announcement, Carter explained: “The market’s been softening since about half way through last year. However, claims inflation is running at mid to high single digits and if the market doesn’t cover that, then 2026 will start to look quite ugly.”

He also noted that Sabre had moved in the opposite direction to much of the motor insurance market in terms of pricing in 2024 because of its financial assessments.

Carter explained: ”We increased prices across last year by 8% or 9% while the market generally took prices down by 10-15%, so we’ve mostly delivered our results despite quite a delta between us and the market pricing. 

“Almost all of our growth came in the first half of 2024 and we gave some of that growth back in the second half because we weren’t prepared to follow the market down [on pricing].

”Our view is that the market is substantially underpriced on new business at the moment – the pendulum has swung too far. The market need to start increasing prices around half year this year to protect 2026.”

Additionally, Carter noted that while tailwinds such as the Ogden Rate Discount rate – which rose from 0.25% to 0.5% on 11 January 2025 – would help motor insurer’s finances for 2025, pricing would need to quickly reflect the market if profitability was the goal.

Boringly consistent

Carter explained that Sabre’s approach of chasing profitability over growth was “boringly consistent” and “built into the DNA of the business”, but had contributed to its out-performing the market in recent, turbulent years. 

The specialist motor insurer launched its Ambition 2030 strategy in 2024, which detailed its intention to reach a profit before tax level of at least £80m by 2030. 

This ambition is reliant on growth, but Carter explained that this would not involve a linear, upward journey. 

He said: ”During the period between now and 2030, we don’t expect to go up in a straight line and do expect some soft and hard market conditions across that period. 

“For example, my expectation is that we won’t grow spectacularly this year, but then when the market turns later this year we should grow strongly going into 2026.”

Acceptance around the non-linear character of growth is vital to Sabre’s business plan, according to Carter. 

He finished: ”We use profitability as a target and volume as the output and that leads to some hard decisions because no one likes going backwards or not growing, but if you look at the world it’s actually littered with people who have tried to grow at the wrong time.”