Willis: M7.8 quake could cause $200bn in damage and 50,000 casualties
The Willis Research Network has joined with US authorities to show how a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas Fault could “devastate the region”.
In cooperation with the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (GCS), researchers found that such a quake could cause long-lasting social and economic consequences, including critical damage to infrastructure, transportation and power.
Willis Research Network senior academic Keith Porter of the University of Colorado led the overall assessment of physical damage, while his colleague Charles Scawthorn of Kyoto University performed the analysis of fire following an earthquake. The final report will be jointly published by the USGS and the CGS.
The study concluded that a massive earthquake could cause up to $200bn in damages and more than 50,000 casualties. One-third of the economic loss would be attributable to fire following the earthquake, another third to shake-related property loss, and most of the rest to direct and indirect business losses associated with the interruption of water supply. Fatalities are approximately equally attributable to fire and shake-related damage.
“Reports such as this allow decision-makers and politicians to formulate effective disaster management plans to mitigate the potentially devastating effects of earthquakes. The combination of cutting-edge technology, world-class scientists and the vast risk management experience of the insurance industry allows us to further deepen our understanding of natural catastrophes and effectively assist our clients with preparations for future events,” said Julie Serakos, executive vice president, Willis Re.
Rowan Douglas, chairman of the WRN, added, “The lessons learned in this Southern California study will have important implications for earthquake risk assessment worldwide. We look forward to working with Porter and Professor Scawthorn to apply this new understanding across our international seismic research programme.”
The USGS-CGS study is said to be the most comprehensive analysis to date of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean. The scenario found that at least 10 million people will be exposed to heavy shaking, although deaths would be mitigated by California’s successful efforts thus far to protect the personal safety of the population. In spite of the large numbers of people in highly shaken areas, deaths are estimated at only 1,800 or 0.02 percent of the people affected.
Professor Scawthorn’s work concluded that fire would double the fatalities and economic losses. Even assuming the absence of Santa Ana winds, the models still indicate a further $65bn in direct losses and $22bn in indirect losses from the fires.
The scenario forms the scientific framework for what will be the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history, scheduled for November 13, 2008. The November preparedness exercise will test the ability of emergency responders to deal with the impact of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California.
The Willis Research Network (WRN) is the world's largest partnership between academia and the insurance industry. Willis has so far teamed up with fifteen leading institutions across a full range of disciplines from atmospheric science and climate statistics, to geography, hydrology and seismology, to the impacts on the environment via engineering, exposure analysis and Geographic Information Systems.
